Denver Metro Area Housing Update - November 2023

by Matt Thomas

The latest housing news for November 2023. In our professional opinion, here's what you need to know about today's real estate market conditions--despite what you may have heard:

Mortgage Rates and Market Trends

In a surprising turn of events, traders are not currently pricing in another rate hike for the first time in two years! Yesterday, we saw RATES at their LOWEST POINT in 3 months. The 10-year treasury's fall from 5% to 4.4% adds weight to the expectation of a downward trend in mortgage rates. So far in November the market has already experienced about a half to one percentage drop in mortgage interest rates. It’s difficult to forecast if this dip represents a long-term trend at this time, but homebuyers should welcome the improvement.This could make late fall and early winter an opportune time for home shopping before rates potentially fall into the 6% range, as they did yesterday. The market moves quickly and some of those gains evaporated today, but that’s the market. If rates were to dip into the 6s in the spring, there’s a good chance for a frenzy of new homebuyers entering the market, driving up competition for the already low supply of available homes to buy.

Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics

Despite conflicting signals, the market largely believes the Fed is done tightening monetary policy. Recent data on the consumer price index (CPI) sparked a major rally on Wall Street, with traders almost completely taking potential Fed rate hikes off the table. The flat reading on the headline CPI, along with a decrease in energy prices, contributed to this sentiment.

Local Market Conditions

The local market conditions provide interesting insights. With over 50% of units under contract experiencing price reductions and motivated sellers willing to negotiate, repair, and offer concessions, 2023 stands out as a year where sellers are driven by necessity. Traditional seasonal patterns indicate a rise in homes being withdrawn or expired from the market in the fourth quarter, setting the stage for likely increased demand and multiple offers in the first quarter of the following year.

Market Trends and Insights

Zillow's October Housing Report highlights a national trend of falling home prices month-over-month due to high mortgage rates and the usual seasonal housing cooldown. However, year-over-year, home values are still up in 34 of the 50 largest markets.

Prices increased only slightly nationwide in October but the month’s hottest markets saw more substantial price growth due to high demand. Unfortunately, none of the Front Range’s largest cities made it onto the latest list (October 2023) of Top 20 Hottest Housing Markets or Markets Seeing the Largest Jump in Rankings (October 2023), though many of our neighbors in the West did (per realtor.com).

Expert Predictions

Expert predictions suggest a rebound in home sales in 2024, with Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, stating, "Existing home sales will rise by 15% next year." The market's expectation for the path of the federal funds rate has shifted, with potential rate cuts in 2024. Yun’s prediction for home sales is not to be confused with home values, though most experts expect that prices will increase next year, with most agreeing on a relatively modest increase.

Bottom Line

In conclusion, 2023 presents both challenges and opportunities in the real estate market. Understanding these trends is crucial for making informed decisions. Your reflection on the significance of data-driven facts will not only benefit your clients but also contribute to the overall health and stability of our market.

Remember there are always opportunities and advantages in any market, so please always feel free to reach out if you have any questions or if you're ready to explore the exciting opportunities in the current real estate landscape.

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Matt Thomas

Consultant | Broker Associate | FA100030130

info@altituderealestategroup.com

+1(303) 269-1617