Are you considering buying a home this year? With a solid game plan and approach to buying a home, you can plan to win in 2024. Of course you’ll need to prepare. And hey, you’re off to a great start by reading this blog—we don’t want you to fall short of your goals either. But, like with just about anything, being prepared will have you ahead of the competition—and, if rates fall significantly, there will surely be competition. A persistent shortage of homes for sale will still likely cause challenges for buyers into 2024, leaving sellers in a favorable position. However, with interest rates falling, of late, could it be the year that buyers finally have the advantage?  If you're considering house hunting this spring, make sure to allocate enough time to find the right property and bring your best negotiation skills to the table. Until then, here’s a breakdown of what's happening in today’s market and how you can prepare. Home Prices Have Stabilized. Will They Begin to Climb? The real estate landscape is currently characterized by stable home prices. After a three-year-long surge, prices have mostly held steady this past year, with some regions experiencing slight decreases and others seeing modest increases. As of November 9th, the national median price for existing homes was $430,300, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Looking ahead, NAR predicts a 0.9% increase in the median price for existing homes in 2024 compared to the previous year. Fannie Mae was among the most optimistic predicting a 2.4% increase, while realtor.com® predicts a 1.7% decrease in median home value in 2024. Here in Colorado, the median home value was significantly higher than the national average at over $612,000. That means you’ll really need to save for your down payment.  The NAR recently reported a discrepancy in cash (down payment) availability between first-time and repeat buyers. First-time buyers typically make a median down payment of 8%, while repeat buyers put down a higher median of 19%. Interest Rates Remain Relatively High  In 2024, it’s high time to acknowledge that historically low mortgage rates are a thing of the past, with rates rising to a 30-year peak in October 2023. However, beginning in November rates began a six-week decline, then stabilized at the end of the year. Currently, rates are holding well below 7% and some experts think we could see rates decrease into the high 5s at some point this year, perhaps as early as Q2.  NAR predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 6.3% in 2024; realtor.com® projects 6.5%. This likely will improve housing affordability and entice more home buyers to return to the market, according to NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  The Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation have contributed to this trend, with 3 interest rate decreases planned for 2024, if patterns hold (always a big if). While rates may impact initial mortgage costs, it's worth considering the option to refinance if rates decrease in the future. What Can You Afford? NAR’s data shows that rates near 6.6% enable the average American family to afford a median-priced home without devoting more than 30% of their income to housing, the threshold commonly used to measure affordability. We can recommend our trusted lender partners so you can quickly and accurately determine what’s truly affordable for your unique scenario.  Competing for That Primo House According to October 2023 data from NAR, over 25% of homes are still selling above their listed price, with 28% of homes achieving this in that month. The median time homes spent on the market was 23 days, and on average, each property received 2.5 offers, indicating a persistently competitive market. NAR’s Yun emphasized the significant impact of limited housing inventory on satisfying housing demand, stating, "Multiple offers, of course, yield only one winner, with the rest left to continue their search." On the other hand, cash transactions continue to play a notable role in the marketplace, with nearly one in three sales (29%) completed in cash, up slightly from the 26% reported in 2022. So, if you have cash, you’re in a better position than most of the market. However, financing is only one aspect of competing for a home and there are many other ways to stand out.  MORE >>> Offer Strategies that Win Flexibility and Compromise As a homebuyer, there are aspects of the real estate market you simply can’t control. For instance, you can't control inventory or when someone decides to put their house up for sale. What you do have control over is your own outlook and readiness. Consider that finding the absolute perfect home should remain your BHAG (big, hairy, audacious goal) but that a "good enough for now" home can kickstart your homeownership journey sooner and may keep you from having the market pass you by. This rings particularly true for first-time buyers eager to start building equity. It’s no secret that real estate presents opportunity as a very solid investment long term, and often in the short term. Putting off buying six months or a year might mean losing out on tens of thousands of dollars. That said, if you find yourself constrained by your options consider broadening the scope of your search to include smaller homes, additional areas, or even different types of housing options such as condos or townhouses, as a suitable compromise. Perhaps you can make do with fewer bedrooms or bathrooms or adapt to a slightly outdated interior.  And, while I’m not your dad, my best fatherly advice is: keep your spirits up—even if it means tolerating less square footage or putting up with quirky linoleum floors for a bit, you'll end up with equity to remodel or sell down the line. How to Prepare: Tips for Winning in 2024 No matter which direction rates go, it’s always great to be prepared for opportunity. If you’re one who likes to prepare (and we highly recommend you do) here are some tips to prepare for and compete in the housing market in 2024 (adapted from a recent article from NerdWallet): Get your finances in order: Review your budget, down payment capabilities, and credit score. Consider consulting with a loan officer for guidance on improving your financial profile. Understand mortgage options: Explore various mortgage options beyond the misconception of needing a 20% down payment. FHA and VA mortgages, as well as down payment assistance programs, offer alternatives. Shop mortgage lenders: Compare offerings from different lenders, considering not only interest rates but also the annual percentage rate (APR) and overall loan costs. Hire a good real estate agent: Choose a buyer's agent with market expertise who can guide you through the process, provide referrals, and navigate current market conditions. Make your best offer and negotiate wisely: Beyond monetary considerations, be flexible with terms such as the closing date. Negotiate wisely and only make concessions that align with your financial capacity. Don't give up: Persistence can pay off in a competitive market. Stay optimistic, be prepared to act swiftly, and seize opportunities when they arise. Bottom Line Don’t get down about the sky-high costs and the scarcity of options, especially if you're a first-time buyer who's been holding off on the house hunt. With today’s market conditions you may experience challenges.  Our advice? Consider the long game. Waiting around for lower rates might end up with you facing even higher prices and tougher competition. So, if your heart is set on buying, focus on finding a place that checks as many of your boxes as possible within your current budget, all the while remembering that buying real estate often means compromising. I always remind my homebuyer clients, “even the buyers at $2.3M may have to compromise on that infinity edge pool if they can only afford to get an in-ground pool when everything else is perfect.” Setting your sights on perfection can often lead to unnecessary disappointment. Homebuyers often expect that they’ll hit a home run with their very first first at-bat when making a purchase. Sometimes, I gently remind them that nothing conquers inflation like real estate, so being in the game is important, even if you start by just getting on base. In any case, staying informed and adapting your approach will be key to success in this ever-evolving real estate landscape… …and we’re here to help. You just have to ask.

  This month, we’re seeing mortgage rates climb back up, creating fresh opportunities for buyers while economic signals keep the market on its toes. From key updates on Denver’s inventory and affordability shifts to a national slowdown we haven’t seen since the ‘90s, October’s market is full of pivotal moves and strategic advantages for buyers and sellers alike. With the November Jobs Report, Election Day, and a Fed meeting right around the corner, expect continued volatility—and stay ready to take advantage of emerging trends. Let’s dive in. Mortgage Rates Update Should we be buckling up for a perfect storm? The average 30-year mortgage rate has edged back up near 7%, impacting buyer sentiment. Mortgage applications fell by 6.7% from last week and a striking 30% month over month, reaching the lowest level since July. Despite this, a strong economy (3% GDP growth, rising retail sales, wages up by 4%, and increased personal income) is driving higher rates. The consumer sentiment has hit a seven-month high, showing confidence, especially among those expecting a Republican win. A potential Republican sweep could elevate rates with lower taxes, increased tariffs, and a shift to equities from bonds. With key events like the November 1st Jobs Report, the November 5th Election, and the Fed’s November 7th meeting ahead, volatility is expected to persist. Though uncertainty remains, this market favors buyers who have a unique edge in today’s market. Think of recent rates as a rollercoaster ride—from September’s brief dip into the high 5% range to the current near-7%.  The upcoming weeks could bring crucial economic data, which might keep sellers motivated to negotiate, despite buyer hesitation. While rates are higher than last month, they remain 1% below last year. Greater Denver Metro Market Update According to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR), there are 11,115 homes available across the Denver Metro, marking a 3.65% increase from last month and a 45.69% rise from last September. Median sales prices sit at $576,171—about a 2.34% decrease from last year. New listings totaled 5,053, a jump from last year’s 4,602, while the average days on market rose by 5.41% over the past month, extending the home-selling lifecycle. Although prices have dipped, inventory is climbing, creating more options and, potentially, negotiating leverage for buyers. Local Interest Is now a good time to buy or sell? What’s the outlook for 2025? The Wall Street Journal recently featured a story of local Denver buyers navigating this dynamic market. The report highlights the trend of buyers and sellers deferring moves despite significant life changes, which can lead to pent-up demand. Nationally, the housing market is at its slowest since 1995. Many have held off on transactions, but this is expected to change as we approach 2025 and 2026 when rates are projected to fall, making it a ripe time for buyers ready to act now. Here’s the link to the article: [Wall Street Journal Article] National News Key economic indicators are shaping the national real estate landscape and consumer confidence. The Federal Reserve recently reduced its benchmark rate for the first time in over four years, and inflation has dropped to its lowest point since early 2021, edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Despite stock market volatility, major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain significantly up year-to-date.  Seasonally, August saw a slight dip in national home prices from June’s peak, along with a higher inventory count—the most in almost four years—yet still low by long-term standards. Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) reached a four-year high, favoring buyers, as active listings rose and sales volumes dipped. Homes still go under contract relatively quickly, although not at pandemic-era speeds. Average days on market and offers per listing reflect cooler conditions than spring, while the rate of price reductions has slowed but remains elevated post-2022’s rate spike. Bottom Line The real estate market remains complex but offers unique advantages for well-informed buyers. As mortgage rates hover around 7% and economic data continues to shift, buyers gain leverage in negotiations, especially as many sellers await clarity from upcoming economic and political events. This seasonal slowdown could present a rare window for those ready to buy, with potential competitive pressure building toward 2025. For sellers, setting realistic expectations is key, while buyers should stay poised to act in an increasingly balanced market.

  In this video, Matt Thomas & Brian Dewald discuss how rising mortgage rates, multiple offers and increasing inventory are impacting the real estate market. They also talk about the success of Brian's cash program for buyers and the potential easing off of selling mortgage bonds by the Federal Reserve which could bring a much needed reduction in rates. They emphasize the importance of being prepared and taking action in the current rate environment. And, despite the recent uptick in rates, home sales multiple offers are still happening. Mortgage Lender Brian Dewald and I discuss the latest economic news and how that's impacting the local housing market. 🏡   Mortgage Minute is a real-time discussion of current new stories impacting real estate and mortgage lending in Denver, Colorado. Hosts Matt Thomas and Brian Dewald share insights that go beyond just interest rates. 📈 Discover the latest updates on mortgage rates and the exciting news that could impact your decision to buy a home. Matt and Brian focus on providing valuable education about the home buying process, emphasizing data over drama and facts over feelings.   💡 Don't miss out on the valuable tips and strategies shared in this episode! If you're considering buying a home or looking for ways to optimize your mortgage, this is a must-watch. Hit play and embark on your journey to homeownership with Mortgage Minute! 🔑✨   You're encouraged to subscribe to our channel, especially if you would like to receive notifications on all of our informative videos.   Subscribe to Our YouTube Channel

With a full first quarter behind us, we’re seeing improvements over last year, one of the slowest moving real estate markets in years. And, as always, we'll take a look at where the market’s been, where it’s at, and where it appears to be headed for the rest of 2024. Where We’re At | Local Housing Market (Denver & The Front Range) Local Market Insights: Easter Seasonality and Inventory Trends As Easter approached, a predictable softening in buyer engagement was observed, mirroring patterns from previous years. With families opting to spend time together, showings dipped slightly, impacting the number of homes going under contract. This seasonal adjustment serves as a reminder of the importance of aligning strategies with the natural ebb and flow of buyer behavior. Inventory Insights: Expanding Choices On a positive note, the landscape of available listings is widening, providing an influx of options for eager buyers awaiting their perfect match in the market. This expansion signals a healthier market environment that caters to diverse preferences and needs. Both new listings and pending transactions have seen adjustments, reflecting a delicate balance between homes entering the market and those securing contracts. Navigating these shifting tides effectively requires staying agile and well-informed. Market Momentum: Showings and Sales Trends Despite a decrease in showings, the quality of buyer interest remained notably high, with those venturing out during the holiday period demonstrating a genuine intent to purchase. This emphasizes the importance of prioritizing engagement quality over sheer quantity. Strategic pricing of listings continues to be pivotal, influencing the speed at which homes are snapped up and the adjustments sellers are willing to make to attract the right buyer. Key Market Metrics: Median Close Price: $595,000, marking a 3.5% increase month-over-month. Supply in Months: 1.67, down by 13/0.47 month-over-month. Median Days in MLS: 11 days, down by 52% month-over-month. Pending Sales: Up nearly 32% month-over-month. New Listings: Up over 16% month-over-month. Total Showings: 13,378, showing a slight decline of 12.1% week-over-week. However, it's important to note that achieving market balance, typically indicated by a six-month supply, would require a significant increase in total listings. This suggests that the market is currently operating below the desired level. Additionally, according to a recent study by Corelogic, Denver ranked in the top 10 (#9) for home price changes in February, experiencing a 3.2% increase compared to 2023. Miami saw the highest gain at 10.2% year over year, highlighting dynamic shifts in housing markets across different regions. Where We’ve Been | National Housing Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.5% in February 2024 compared with February 2023. Chief Economist for CoreLogic, Dr. Selma Hepp, said: “Home price growth pivoted in February, as the impact of the January 2023 Home Price Index bottom finally faded. As a result, the U.S. should begin to see slowing annual home price gains moving forward. Nevertheless, with a 0.7% increase from January to February 2024, which is almost double the monthly increase recorded before the pandemic, spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check. Still, despite affordability challenges, homebuyer demand appears to favor already expensive, coastal markets with a limited availability of properties for sale.”  Where We’re Headed | Spring Housing Market Forecast Altos data shows we only need stability in mortgage rates for a rebound in home sales. You may know that home sales have been slowish for the past 18 months or so. As mortgage rates began rising starting in 2022, payment affordability got dramatically worse and homebuyer demand slowed. At the same time, seller volume dried up. But now sellers are coming back into the market. New listing volume last week was 18% more than a year ago. Total available inventory is gradually climbing about 1% per week — last year it was still declining in April. As we roll into the second quarter, we should have accelerating inventory growth each week. The Economy’s Impact on the National Real Estate Market In a recent assessment of the job market and its implications for the real estate sector, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), offers valuable insights into the current economic landscape and its potential impact on housing trends: "The job market continues to exhibit solid strength, with 303,000 net payroll job additions in March. That brings total job creation to 5.8 million from the pre-COVID peak four years ago. The construction industry added 39,000 net new jobs, up by 600,000 from four years ago. Therefore, more housing supply is on the way in future months. More jobs mean more potential housing demand in the future. But more jobs also mean the interest rate decline could stall as the Federal Reserve re-evaluates inflation risk. Wage growth was 4.1% in March after two straight years of above 5% gains. This decelerating wage growth can lessen consumer price inflation. Overall, mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged, with no further measurable declines in upcoming months. High budget deficits will also hinder interest rates from falling as government borrowing crowds out mortgage funding availability. Even so, multiple offers on properties are still happening. Homeowners with record-high housing wealth should understand the current favorable environment for putting homes on the market." Economist Who’s Buying? | Millennials Take the Lead in Home Buying The housing market is experiencing a significant shift in demographics, with millennials emerging as the largest group of home buyers, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). The 2024 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report reveals that millennials, spanning both younger (ages 25 to 33) and older (ages 34 to 43) segments, now constitute a combined 38% of the home buying market, up from 28% last year. In contrast, baby boomers' share has decreased from 39% to 31%, relinquishing their position as the largest demographic of home buyers. Dr. Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist, attributes this shift to younger millennials entering homeownership for the first time and older millennials transitioning to larger homes to accommodate their changing needs. The report also highlights a rise in first-time buyers across generations, with younger millennials leading the charge. Additionally, the emergence of Generation Z (ages 18-24) in the housing market demonstrates diversity and independence, with a notable proportion of single female purchasers. Despite these changing buyer trends, baby boomers remain the largest home-selling generation, accounting for 45% of all sellers in 2023. The report also reveals variations in homeownership tenure among different generations, with older millennials typically selling their homes after just six years, compared to Gen X, baby boomers, and the Silent Generation, who typically stay in their homes for 15 years. The enduring appeal of homeownership is evident, with 82% of all buyers considering it a good financial investment, particularly younger millennials, 86% of whom share this positive outlook. Regardless of generation, the report indicates that buyers and sellers alike value the expertise and guidance provided by real estate agents, highlighting the essential role they play in realizing homeownership dreams. NAR President Kevin Sears emphasizes the universal value of owning a home, serving as a cornerstone for personal prosperity and community development. As market dynamics evolve, the reliance on real estate agents for expertise and guidance remains steadfast, underscoring the invaluable service they provide in facilitating homeownership. Bottom Line The local housing market on the Denver & Front Range experienced seasonal fluctuations as Easter approached, with a slight dip in buyer engagement. However, this was coupled with a positive expansion in inventory, offering more choices for buyers. Despite a decrease in showings, the quality of buyer interest remained high, emphasizing the importance of focusing on engagement quality over quantity. Key market metrics show promising trends, including a median close price increase and a significant uptick in pending sales and new listings. And now it’s also clear just exactly who is buying up the new inventory in 2024.

  It's springtime and that means competition for homebuyers in the real estate market has picked up. If you're not cash rich, you may find yourself unable to compete for the house you want. Brian Dewald of Maverick Lending Solutions has a product that can help homebuyers in today's market in one of 3 major ways:    1) It can help save a deal that another lender can't complete  2) It can put you in a position to buy with all cash to beat competitors 3) It can help you buy your dream home before you have to sell so you can have a roof over your head and still be able to buy and sell a home.    

Where were you Tuesday morning? Wasn't that snow squall something? We woke up with no snow on the ground and no flurries in the air. By 10:00 AM most of the Metro Area was enveloped in a fast-moving snow squall that made it look like a February Christmas in less than 2 hours. The snow stuck to the streets and people were caught in whiteout conditions. Yet by noon in many areas, blue skies were peaking out again.   Let me tell you how that little snow squall saved an opportunity for some homebuyers I worked with earlier this week.   This past Monday, I had the opportunity to work with buyers in from out of town. Often, when a buyer comes into town we have a compressed amount of time to see properties. To my surprise, we were able to find twelve homes in their price range so we squeezed that into a long afternoon. Normally, I recommend not seeing more than 6 to 8 properties at any one time. It allows for processing what you've seen and not have the homes blend into one in your mind. In this case, however, it made sense to see the best of what was available since they had a plane to catch the following morning.   Weekends are typically the busiest for showings. More buyers than not are most often available on the weekends. Showing homes on a Monday, when the market is heating up, can sometimes lead to missed opportunities when the best properties begin to go under contract after a good weekend of showings. This past Monday was no exception, though it was still February. By the time we began our tour of those twelve properties, I had already received phone calls from listing agents saying their sellers had begun considering or even accepting offers. At 12:30 PM that had already occurred on two. Later that afternoon I received another couple of calls from agents saying we could show their listings but they too were accepting an offer and going under contract. By the time our afternoon ended, we were able to see 8 of the initial 12; the other four were under contract.   My buyers loved two of the eight we saw. They wanted to sleep on their decision, which is always a good idea, when you have the time. They also had a flight to catch Tuesday morning which took off just before the snow squall the hit the Denver Area. By the time they landed home another 3 had gone under contract!   Finally, Tuesday afternoon, my buyers had narrowed their search to one specific property. Good thing, because the other one they liked went under contract next.   We prepared to make an offer, all the while staying close and aware of the action all around us on their favorite listings. The dominos were falling. My buyers began to waffle a bit wondering why the property they were considering making an offer on hadn't gone under contract already. Were they missing something? Was this property really as good as it seemed? After all, we all agreed, it was hands down, the best property we toured on Monday. So why were they so fortunate to have their favorite still available? Hadn't anyone else loved that same property?   All along I had been communicating with the listing agent. They had indeed, received offers. In fact, the first offer, before we showed it, had come in with a protracted closing date. The sellers simply weren't interested in waiting that long. A second offer had been presented, but the agent who presented the offer turned out to be so aggressively difficult the sellers chose not to work with his buyers. He blew it for them. That's another story for another day.   Then the snow squall blew in Tuesday morning and the listing agent said that three buyers had canceled their showings. Only one showing still stood, scheduled for early evening.   We ended up being the third offer. We offered just before noon on Tuesday and set an acceptance deadline of 6:00 PM that same day knowing there was that other showing at 4:45 PM--just enough time for someone to sneak in and make an offer to compete with ours, though it would be tight. But what were the chances they too would love the property? Apparently pretty high becuase they did, in fact, try to get an offer in before our Acceptance Deadline. At 5:56 PM the sellers signed our offer and the other folks missed out. This listing had in fact, received 4 offers in 48 hours!   I share this story because it's a real life scenario of what's going on in some areas of our local market. People are ready to move this spring. These homes were priced between $740,000-840,000. The same price range that struggled to move last fall when mortgage rates blew past 8 percent.   In the end, we were saved by a snow squall and the market seems to have melted all the snow away…just in time for another not-quite-spring weekend. What happens later this spring…or if rates were to fall?

Mortgage rates inched up this week, prompting a pause among some prospective homebuyers. However, there are compelling reasons why waiting might not be the most advantageous strategy. Let's delve into the data and trends shaping the housing market landscape. Impact of Mortgage Rate Changes Home shoppers are keenly attuned to fluctuations in mortgage rates, as evidenced by the recent uptick in the average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, reaching 6.77%. This increase led to a 3% decline in mortgage applications for home purchases, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. While even marginal changes in rates can influence purchasing power, borrowing costs have generally stabilized. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, notes that despite the weekly uptick, mortgage rates have followed a downward trajectory since fall 2023, now sitting a full percentage point below recent highs. Considerations for Prospective Buyers Waiting for mortgage rates to decrease may not yield significant savings. Even a slight decrease in rates may not substantially alter monthly mortgage payments, particularly as home prices continue to rise. With the median price of existing homes reaching all-time highs and projected to climb further, buyers face the challenge of navigating a market characterized by low inventory and persistent price pressure. Regional Trends and Market Dynamics While national averages provide insights into broader trends, it's essential to examine regional nuances. In the Denver and Front Range area, for example, housing market dynamics may differ from the national landscape. The region has witnessed an increase in new listings, signaling growing interest from sellers. Additionally, inventory levels have seen a slight uptick compared to the previous year, potentially offering buyers more options. However, this increased inventory is accompanied by rising mortgage rates, which could impact buyer demand and price dynamics. Implications for Sellers and Price Dynamics As sellers ease back into the market, the region has seen a steady growth in active inventory, albeit at a fractionally slower pace than in previous weeks. While this may provide buyers with more choices, it also raises questions about the balance between supply and demand. Furthermore, the sensitivity of homebuyers to higher mortgage rates is reflected in the increasing number of price reductions, indicating a cautious approach among consumers. Future Outlook and Considerations As the housing market continues to evolve rapidly, monitoring key indicators such as inventory levels, sales growth, and price reductions is crucial for gauging future trends. While median home prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, the impact of sustained high mortgage rates on price dynamics remains uncertain. Whether home price gains will persist in the face of elevated mortgage rates is a question that warrants close observation in the coming months. Bottom Line In navigating the current housing market, prospective buyers in the Denver and Front Range area, like their counterparts nationwide, must carefully evaluate their options. While waiting for lower mortgage rates may seem tempting, the broader market context, including rising home prices and shifting inventory levels, suggests that delaying purchases may not necessarily result in significant savings. By staying informed and adaptable, buyers can make informed decisions aligned with their long-term goals in a dynamic real estate landscape.

I saw a post today that said “it’s always sunny in the Bahamas.” That’s probably mostly true. It’s often sunny here too, isn’t it? That’s what we love about Colorado. Yesterday, for instance, was beautiful. A great day for a walk. A nice day to get some sunshine and vitamin D infusion on the skin. Today is kinda February-like though isn’t it? I literally saw real estate for sale signs going in yards yesterday (a sign spring could be right around the corner) but a day like today reminds us that spring is officially still a month away.  There are signs of inventory picking up though.  The latest report from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) indicates that there are currently 4,871 attached and detached homes available in the entire Denver Metro area. This shows a significant increase (18.23%), in available properties, from January 2023—good news for homebuyers. And while mortgage rates have been up and down this week, homebuyer sentiment appears to be on the rise while NAHB (National Association of HomeBuilders) metric for measuring their confidence also rose 4% to its highest level since August of last year.  So how’s the market? The era of multiple-offer madness has simmered down from the fever pitch we experienced a few years ago, and yet about 20% of homes sold still have sellers celebrating selling at a price over list price. Agents are still helping buyers find inventive ways to lower interest rates, such as the 3-2-1 or the 2-1 rate buydown, and other concessions (ask us how).  Today’s homebuyers don’t seem deterred about rates trending back up a bit as they have been lately (yet),  “[The] Consumer Sentiment indicator this morning rose to a 31-month high on a strong job market. Inflation is still on a downward trajectory.  Remember, never does anything move in a straight line. Experts are expecting a lower inflation report next month and a return to the mid-6s by spring, officially starting in 7 weeks, with a gradual decline to 6.2% by year-end.” For those of you hoping for drastically lower rates to make your move, I recommend patience. The reality is no one knows when rates will move. There’s only what we know presently.  Meanwhile, affordability remains in the same range we’ve been seeing in the Denver Metro area. The median sales price is $565,000 this month. Whereas last month, the median sales price was $15,000 lower, near $550,000, but $25,000 higher than January 2023, which was $539,250. Bottom Line In the meantime, if you or someone you know is considering a move in town, out of town, downtown, or even in or to another state, I can help (yes, in other states). Let’s schedule a conversation.   

With the new year already a month in, we’re already seeing exciting developments in the real estate market. And, in this update, we'll take a look at where the market’s been, where it’s at, and where it appears to be headed in 2024. Where We’ve Been | National Housing Reflecting on 2023, we drew a comparison to the conditions in 1995. Why? Existing-home sales hit a record low of 4.09 million in 2023, mirroring the 3.85 million recorded in 1995. However, the main difference in this comparison is that the U.S. population has grown from 266.6 million (1995) to 336.0 million (2023), contributing to challenges in inventory and affordability. Back in 1995, there were 1.58 million single-family homes available for purchase. In December 2023, this number dropped to 870,000, and the months' supply decreased from 4.8 to 3.1 months. Again, considering our substantial difference in population, you can see how available housing inventory would influence affordability, mirroring a typical supply-demand model.  Affordability concerns were underscored by the median home sales price, soaring from $114,600 in 1995 to a historical high of $389,800 in 2023. Despite a difference in mortgage interest rates, a difference from 7.93% in 1993 to 6.81% in 2023, housing affordability indices, qualifying incomes, and mortgage payment percentages underwent significant shifts. First-time homebuyers faced increased challenges, with their share of the market dropping from 42% in 1995 to 32% in 2023, and the age of first-time buyers rising from 31 to 35 years. Despite these challenges, there is hope for 2024. Mortgage interest rates are on the decline, buyers are entering the market, and new housing construction is helping to increase available inventory. If these trends persist, we anticipate a more positive outcome for the housing market this year. Where We’re At | Local Housing Market (Denver & The Front Range) In the metro Denver real estate market, a notable shift in the relationship between supply and demand is evident as well. New listings increased by 15.2% week over week, and pending transactions surged by 20.7%. The Odds of Selling increased by 4.2% to 53.0%, indicating a positive trend. To achieve balance, we would need 23,177 total listings, putting us at 19.9% of balance. Showings increased by 14.5%, with a median of 21 days on the market. Rates Rates Drop Significantly on “Fed Day”, but Not Because of The Fed The Fed met on January 31st, and rates experienced a notable drop, though the drop is not solely attributed to The Fed’s actions. Economic data and headlines about banking troubles contributed to this shift. While additional gains depend on incoming economic data, things just improved for potential homebuyers who are rate sensitive. Where We’re Headed | What Local Lenders are Saying Local lenders are noting unexpected increases in client introductions, pre-approvals, and applications, indicating a potentially busy spring market. Now sure looks like an opportune time to ensure a strong pre-approval, understand the next steps, and prepare for competitive market conditions…or get out ahead of them. One of our local lender associates wrote,  "If January is any indication of what’s to come in the Spring Market, then HELLO FEBRUARY! I experienced an unexpected increase in client introductions, pre-approvals, and applications this past month that was very welcome but not typical for this time of year. This tells me that we are in for a busy spring, which means NOW is the time to prepare. Anyone considering, talking about, or looking to buy this year should reach out to ensure that they have the strongest pre-approval possible and that they understand and are comfortable with the next steps. I focus on informing clients through communicating and listening to make sure they are as comfortable and ready when the time is right. If you know anyone who would like to be informed, listened to, taken care of, and prepared to successfully close on a new home in this competitive market, please send them my way." Bottom Line When navigating the real estate landscape, it is always crucial to stay informed and prepared. If you have any questions or need assistance, we encourage you to reach out. There’s no sense in wondering and wandering on your own.

Navigating the journey to homeownership can be both exciting and challenging. But if there's one thing our experience fighting for the best interest of our clients has taught us, it's that no two home-buying scenarios are alike, and that's why we believe in a tailored, thoughtful approach to help you secure the home of your dreams. Unlocking the Secrets to Winning Offers So when we're asked the burning questions of every homebuyer - "How do we win this house?" or "What's the lowest offer we can make?" - there is no one-size-fits-all answer. Each situation is unique, and what worked in a previous negotiation might not apply to your current endeavor. Nevertheless, there's a wealth of wisdom to be gained from every attempt, be it a victory or a learning experience. At The Altitude Group, we pride ourselves on providing winning advice by taking a customized, thoughtful approach based on the unique factors influencing your offer. Here's a glimpse into our winning offer strategy: Price, Terms, and Your Goals: We analyze the interplay between price, terms, and your personal goals. A careful consideration of these elements allows us to craft an offer that aligns with your objectives while remaining competitive, while keeping in mind any information we’ve gathered about what the seller is looking for. Understanding Market Conditions: Knowledge is power. We keep you informed about the current market conditions, helping you understand whether it's a buyer's or seller's market. This insight guides our strategy for a more informed and competitive offer. The Power of Pre-Approval: A strong pre-approval not only streamlines the process but also enhances the attractiveness of your offer. We guide you through the importance of this step to strengthen your position and we’ll seek to involve the lender as part of our team approach to show strength and viability. Personalization is Key: Tailoring your offer to the seller's preferences can make a significant difference. We explore ways to personalize terms, such as flexible closing dates or accommodating special requests. Understanding Seller Motivations: Knowing why a seller is parting with their property can be a game-changer. We help you decode seller motivations to refine your negotiation strategy. Professional Connections Matter: Our established relationships with industry professionals, from mortgage brokers to inspectors, contribute to a seamless process. Trust in our network to navigate the complexities of real estate transactions. Taking the Next Steps In a competitive market, timing is crucial. We urge you to respond promptly to new listings, armed with the knowledge and confidence to act swiftly when the right property comes along. Remember, flexibility in negotiations and transparent communication are key components of success. As you embark on this exciting journey with The Altitude Group, rest assured that our team is committed to guiding you through each step. Whether you're facing a multiple-offer scenario or dealing with a property that has lingered on the market, our approach is tailored to your unique situation. This is why we have a long list of satisfied clients. It’s our mission and duty to help you make your next home purchase a reality.

That’s a Wrap on 2023! This year was marked by low home value appreciation and slower than normal real estate transaction activity, and staggering high mortgage rates. In October, we actually saw homes trade at a slower rate than they did during the Great Recession. But November brought relief, and rates fell for about 6 straight weeks, then stabilized the last two weeks of the year to round out an interesting year in the real estate market. Mortgage Rates Wednesday, in fact, was the most interesting day of the past 2 weeks, but that's not saying much. The past 2 weeks have been the calmest for mortgage rates in more than a year with the average lender essentially unchanged since December 14th. Yesterday's excitement came in the form of a more normal level of volatility. It didn't hurt that the volatility happened to be in the direction of lower rates. With that moderate improvement, the average lender was still lending just barely at the lowest levels since May 2023.  The Impact of Rates on Affordability Deputy Chief Economist & Vice President of National Association of Realtors (NAR) Research, Jessica Lautz said, “In just 6 weeks of decline, this makes a considerable difference for a home buyer purchasing a $400,000 home. A monthly mortgage payment of $2,135 is a monthly savings of $166. This is considerable, and buyers who have been priced out may start to trickle back in. For homebuyers who are taking on a mortgage to purchase a home and have been wary of the autumn rise in mortgage rates, the market is turning more favorable, and there should be optimism entering 2024 for a better market. It should be noted that in the most recent months' data in the REALTORS® Confidence Index, 29% of the market is purchasing a home without the use of a mortgage. These buyers are likely indifferent to the mortgage market. Some are investors, but many are primary residence buyers who have built substantial housing equity amid home price gains. While some of these buyers may be local, others may be moving long distances to a more affordable area. For now, eyes are on the Feds statements, CPI, and the 10-year treasury to see what the end of the year holds for mortgage interest rates. For those interested join NAR's Real Estate Forecast Summit on Dec 12 for a more in-depth forecast.” Existing Home Sales In November, the housing market witnessed a turnaround as existing home sales, which had experienced a downward trend for the past five months, increased by almost 1% compared to the previous month, reaching an annualized rate of 3.82 million units. It's worth noting that these sales figures only partially capture the significant decline in mortgage rates over the last two months, suggesting the likelihood of even more robust numbers in the upcoming months. The national median sales price for November stood at $388,000, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase, according to NAR. Compared to Last Year This time last year there was a significant decline in mortgage rates as well. Between late October 2022 and early February 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rates decreased by approximately 1.3% (130 basis points). This reduction played a crucial role in the impressive 14% month-over-month improvement observed in existing home sales in February 2023. “Interestingly, the decline in mortgage rates this year has been more substantial (1.5% or 150 basis points) and quicker (within a span of 2 months) compared to the previous year. According to Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily, it has been labeled as "the biggest drop in a 45-day window that we've ever measured."” NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun seems to agree: “The latest weakness in existing home sales still reflects the buyer bidding process in most of October when mortgage rates were at a two-decade high before the actual closings in November. A marked turn [upward] can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.” What he means is that the majority of the home sales that closed in November went under contract in October, when rates were much higher. (It generally takes 1.0–1.5 months for a deal to close.) New Home Construction It’s been said that new construction will lead us (the US housing market) out of the inventory shortages and into affordability. While that may take some time, several years at least, it’s good to see new home starts, new home builder confidence, and overall site traffic all up in recent months: “With mortgage rates down roughly 50 basis points over the past month, builders are reporting an uptick in traffic as some prospective buyers who previously felt priced out of the market are taking a second look. With the nation facing a considerable housing shortage, boosting new home production is the best way to ease the affordability crisis, expand housing inventory and lower inflation.” — Alicia Huey, NAHB Chairman End of a Season? Winter just began but the year is concluding and the stale real estate market season may be as well. First-time buyers traditionally fare better in the winter, as there is less competition from families in the home-buying market. But as the year comes to an end, it’s quite possible that so too are the best opportunities. Following interest rates’ high water mark in October, market fatigue became widespread amongst most sellers and buyers. However, for those who remained in the market, enduring the slowdown in showing and listing activity, there were opportunities for buyers to negotiate with bedraggled sellers. Now with Christmas nearly a week behind us and mightily improved rates since the end of October, there are already signs of the market picking up steam heading into the turn of the new year. Bottom Line Homebuyers who’ve been priced out in the last year should find optimism through decreased interest rates in 2024. As for sellers, prices are predicted to moderate with most experts predicting a modest 2-4% increase in value, though some are calling for as much as 5+% if interest rates dip too low too quickly. Either way, it should be interesting. Give us a call to discuss how today's market conditions impact you.   If you’d like to read further on what 2024’s real estate market may hold, we’ve curated a short list of articles we think you may want to read before the new year ramps up next week: Home Sales Start to Rise Building Momentum for 2024 NAR Forecasts 4.71 Million Existing-Home Sales, Improved Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024