So much happened in October…and now it's over. What should we make of it?

This month, we’re seeing mortgage rates climb back up, creating fresh opportunities for buyers while economic signals keep the market on its toes. From key updates on Denver’s inventory and affordability shifts to a national slowdown we haven’t seen since the ‘90s, October’s market is full of pivotal moves and strategic advantages for buyers and sellers alike. With the November Jobs Report, Election Day, and a Fed meeting right around the corner, expect continued volatility—and stay ready to take advantage of emerging trends. Let’s dive in.

Should we be buckling up for a perfect storm? The average 30-year mortgage rate has edged back up near 7%, impacting buyer sentiment. Mortgage applications fell by 6.7% from last week and a striking 30% month over month, reaching the lowest level since July. Despite this, a strong economy (3% GDP growth, rising retail sales, wages up by 4%, and increased personal income) is driving higher rates. The consumer sentiment has hit a seven-month high, showing confidence, especially among those expecting a Republican win. A potential Republican sweep could elevate rates with lower taxes, increased tariffs, and a shift to equities from bonds.

With key events like the November 1st Jobs Report, the November 5th Election, and the Fed’s November 7th meeting ahead, volatility is expected to persist. Though uncertainty remains, this market favors buyers who have a unique edge in today’s market. Think of recent rates as a rollercoaster ride—from September’s brief dip into the high 5% range to the current near-7%. 

The upcoming weeks could bring crucial economic data, which might keep sellers motivated to negotiate, despite buyer hesitation. While rates are higher than last month, they remain 1% below last year.

According to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR), there are 11,115 homes available across the Denver Metro, marking a 3.65% increase from last month and a 45.69% rise from last September. Median sales prices sit at $576,171—about a 2.34% decrease from last year. New listings totaled 5,053, a jump from last year’s 4,602, while the average days on market rose by 5.41% over the past month, extending the home-selling lifecycle. Although prices have dipped, inventory is climbing, creating more options and, potentially, negotiating leverage for buyers.

Is now a good time to buy or sell? What’s the outlook for 2025? The Wall Street Journal recently featured a story of local Denver buyers navigating this dynamic market. The report highlights the trend of buyers and sellers deferring moves despite significant life changes, which can lead to pent-up demand. Nationally, the housing market is at its slowest since 1995. Many have held off on transactions, but this is expected to change as we approach 2025 and 2026 when rates are projected to fall, making it a ripe time for buyers ready to act now. Here’s the link to the article: [Wall Street Journal Article]

Key economic indicators are shaping the national real estate landscape and consumer confidence. The Federal Reserve recently reduced its benchmark rate for the first time in over four years, and inflation has dropped to its lowest point since early 2021, edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Despite stock market volatility, major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain significantly up year-to-date. 

Seasonally, August saw a slight dip in national home prices from June’s peak, along with a higher inventory count—the most in almost four years—yet still low by long-term standards.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) reached a four-year high, favoring buyers, as active listings rose and sales volumes dipped. Homes still go under contract relatively quickly, although not at pandemic-era speeds. Average days on market and offers per listing reflect cooler conditions than spring, while the rate of price reductions has slowed but remains elevated post-2022’s rate spike.

The real estate market remains complex but offers unique advantages for well-informed buyers. As mortgage rates hover around 7% and economic data continues to shift, buyers gain leverage in negotiations, especially as many sellers await clarity from upcoming economic and political events. This seasonal slowdown could present a rare window for those ready to buy, with potential competitive pressure building toward 2025. For sellers, setting realistic expectations is key, while buyers should stay poised to act in an increasingly balanced market.