Autumn of Opportunity

by Matt Thomas

Rates Stabilize

After a volatile week last week with rates hitting 3-year lows (6.13%) then rebounding to about 6.3%, rates seem to have stabilized for the time being. But we've seen this song and dance before. Rates drop lower in the fall, then stabilize, only to climb back up later in the fall. But why?

When asked about whether or not he thought rates would continue to trend downward, Housingwire's Logan Motoshami indicated that, in his opinion, rates are unlikely to dip much below 6% due, in large part, to neutral Fed policy and mortgage spreads. If you want to hear more about what mortgage spreads are, check out our last Mortgage Minute (04:25).

Likely because of the recent drop in mortgage rates mortgage applications jumped big last week — nearly 30%. A lot of that was refinancing, but purchase applications were up too: +12% from the prior week and 20% higher than this time last year.

Translation: buyers are out there.

We’re also seeing momentum in new construction. August marked the third straight month of increasing new home sales, hitting the strongest pace in almost a year. Builders are focusing on finishing projects (completions rose 8.4% over July), while pulling back a bit on new starts and permits. Even so, builder confidence ticked up in September to a six-month high when it comes to future sales.

BOTTOM LINE

Rates may not be headed much lower, but we’re still sitting just a tick off the best levels in three years. Buyer activity is growing, builders are regaining confidence, and opportunities are here now — even if they don’t stick around long. Nobody has a crystal ball, but we can lean on expert insights, real-time data, and market patterns to make smart decisions.

If you’ve been waiting for a window, this could be it — the Autumn of Opportunity, if you will. Let’s talk through your options and see how today’s market could work in your favor. Whether it’s locking in a purchase, refinancing, or simply exploring what makes sense for you, I’d love to help you move forward with confidence. I'm just a phone call away. 303-269-1617