What Does More Available Homes Mean for You?

by Matt Thomas

Is This Much Housing Inventory Healthy?

All spring and into the summer, if you've heard anything about the housing market it's probably that the inventory levels are rising. And since so much of the benefits in housing have been for sellers over the past decade, rather than buyers, I'm sure that news feels like bad news for the real estate market. It's certainly been spun that way in the say-anything-for-a-click media.

But to answer the question about whether or not current housing inventory levels are “healthy” or not, I turned to a recent statement by Megan Aller of First American Title: “let's first be clear about something: inventory hasn't been healthy for over a decade."

Metro Denver's housng inventory has been anemic levels since 2013 and hit "intensive care unit" levels during the pandemic. There were simply not enough people selling, and builders were not keeping ahead of demand.

Yes, inventory today is higher than it was from 2013 to mid-2022 and even into mid-spring of last year, but comparing today's market to an artificial low point is misleading at best.

For real perspective: peak inventory in Metro Denver before the Great Recession was over 36,000 listings in June 2006. Remember that? When there were several “for sale” signs on every block?

Today inventory stands at about one-third that level. Headlines comparing current inventory to post-2013 period are designed to terrify, rather than clarify. It's fullblown clickbait, Aller said. "Stop falling for it, and quite frankly, stop sharing it."

“And while inventory is a part of the story, it's not the whole story. You cannot talk about the market without also addressing demand. Supply and demand shape the market--always have, always will. Alarmist posts ignore that critical fact.” The proof is in the [data] pudding, so to speak. “and without data, you're just guessing.”

What that means for buyers is choices. And for sellers…competition. For sellers it's a market that demands patience and requires appropriate pricing to stand out amongst other listings. Meanwhile buyers are getting the choices they've been starving for along with many of the demands in their offers met. And wouldn't you know it…mortgage applications are up 20% from last year.

According to Housingwire:

"It’s been a positive year for purchase application data, even with elevated mortgage rates. Although it appears that cash buyers are down as a percentage of sales, the data for purchase applications in 2025 shows encouraging trends despite chaotic headlines.
Purchase application data typically looks ahead 30 to 90 days, so it may take up to four months for sales data to reflect purchase applications. We should expect year-over-year growth in existing home sales from July to November, as indicated in the reports from June to October, given the relatively low benchmark. Remember, this is occurring in an environment of elevated mortgage rates, not lower rates. Just imagine what would happen if mortgage rates range from 5.75%-6.25% to 6.25% for some duration."

Local Buzz

Home Prices

Median prices held steady at $600,000, unchanged from both last month and last year. That said, there’s a split: single-family homes crept up 2%, while attached homes (like condos and townhomes) dipped 2%. The market is showing signs of cooling—not crashing. Price appreciation is slowing, not reversing.

Inventory

The amount of listings available, both attached and detached has crept over 13,000 [13,251] this month which is a 38% increase over this time last year.

Time on Market

Homes are sticking around a bit longer before getting scooped up. The median days on market is now 14 days, up 5 days from May 2024, but flat compared to April. It’s still relatively quick by historical standards, but buyers are no longer rushing in quite as fast—unless the home is priced right.

Buyer Activity

Despite the affordability squeeze, buyers aren’t sitting on the sidelines. Pending sales are up 12% year-over-year and 8% month-over-month, signaling that serious buyers are still in the game—especially with more inventory to choose from. Most action is happening in the $400K–$700K price range, which accounted for 54% of closed sales.

Interest Rates

High mortgage rates are still the elephant in the room as they remain in the high 6s. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts suggests we’ll likely see elevated borrowing costs through the rest of 2025. That’s keeping a lid on affordability and overall activity, even as other parts of the market begin to shift.

Market Opportunities

The increase in inventory is creating space for buyers to negotiate. The original list-to-close ratio slipped to 98.9% from last year’s 100%, showing a little more room to work a deal. Homes are taking longer to sell, and sellers who overprice are finding themselves left behind. Homes that are well prepared/well-presented and well-priced are…well…still flying off the shelf.

BOTTOM LINE

The Fed’s latest meeting confirmed that interest rate relief isn’t coming soon. That means higher mortgage rates are likely here to stay through the end of 2025. While the market will remain tight in the short term, there are a few bright spots on the horizon—more inventory, slower price growth, and the possibility of lower rates in the years ahead.

Look for our next update with a 6-month summary, reviewing the local and national housing market over the first half of 2025.

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Matt Thomas

Consultant | Broker Associate | FAFA100030130

info@altituderealestategroup.com

+1(303) 269-1617